FC Exchange Daily Market Commentary

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Daily Market Commentary

Foreign Currency Report 1 August 2008

01 January 1970




Sterling

Sterling slipped against the Euro and a basket of currencies yesterday as falling house prices and record-low consumer confidence underlined economic weakness. Despite its broad losses, the pound rose as much as half a percent versus the dollar, which ran into selling pressure due to weak U.S. economic growth figures and initial jobless claims; however these gains were soon lost later on in the day as the markets adjusted to the data.



The inability of Sterling to hold onto these gains further highlights the fact that the UK is struggling to make any head way against the major currencies due to our own economic issues outweighing those of our counterparts. In fact figures have shown that UK house prices had their ninth straight monthly fall in June, taking the annual figure to its biggest drop since the data series began in 1991. Also noted was a record low reading of consumer confidence offering more evidence that the deteriorating housing market continues to batter the wider economy, which is seen as pressuring sterling further.



High inflation is holding the Bank of England back from raising interest rates, and even some of the policy committee's more hawkish members have acknowledged the difficulty in setting monetary policy. In a newspaper interview on Thursday, Bank of England member Timothy Beesley said rates were "mildly restrictive", but that this was justifiable due to the inflation outlook. A recent poll has shown that it is widely expected that we will see rates kept on hold for now and cut later on in the year, providing a further negative outlook for the pound.




US Dollar and Euro



Today's data from the US will include the all important Non-farm payroll report which is expected to show job losses for a seventh straight month with experts predicting the economy gave back another 75,00 jobs in the month of July. The dollar rally that we had seen appears to have been derailed for the time being, with today's non-farm payrolls likely to deliver more woes for the Greenback.

To add to the problems facing the US, growth is being hampered by soaring oil prices, a lingering housing slump and a credit crunch. This is part of the reason we saw such volatility yesterday as it leads to further fears that weak economic readings will encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold. The Fed is now expected to keep its key base rate pegged at 2.0 percent at a rate meeting due next Tuesday.



Meanwhile in the Euro sector a dilemma facing the European Central Bank has intensified after new figures showed both inflation and unemployment rising above expectations. Official estimates show Eurozone inflation rose from 4.0% to 4.1% in June, the highest reading for sixteen years. At its last meeting in early July the ECB raised interest rates to 4.25% from 4.0% in response to the growing inflationary threat. While the ECB has made it clear its commitment to fighting inflation - now more than 2% above its target rate - increasing interest rates even further would be politically difficult given the rapid economic slowdown being suffered across much of the region.

Particularly worrying for both European central bankers and politicians is the wide divergence in unemployment rates across the fifteen countries in the Eurozone. In Spain, for example, they are currently suffering a sharp housing led economic slowdown, with the official unemployment now stands at an uncomfortable 10.1% - up from 8.1% a year ago.




In Germany, however, the unemployment rate fell in the year to June, from 8.4% to 7.3%, though given recent economic data a future increase in joblessness might be expected. It is clear some nations need an interest cut more than others, piling more pressure on the ECB. As such ECB policy is likely to become a hot political issue over the next few months if the economic slowdown is as bad as many fear.



To conclude, we have seen a glut of data this week making interesting viewing as it has further highlighted that currencies other than Sterling can bounce back from the negative data that they see. In the UK a deteriorating housing market and frail economy is making it increasingly more difficult for the Bank of England to raise interest rates to counter inflation risks, which will no doubt sting the pound in the next few months. If you are looking to buy currency with Sterling in the coming months then in order to combat this sting in the tail that we are expected to see, discuss your requirement with one of our dedicated currency brokers who will give you all the options open to you to minimise your risk and exposure in such a volatile market place. Call +44 (0) 20 7989 0000 or email me directly to jrs@fcexchange.co.uk